One-party states of a socialist type are characterized by having an official ideology defined by the ruling party, which controls the media, the economy, and the armed forces. After the 1959 Revolution, Cuba suppressed all remnants of opposition through exile, imprisonment, torture, and a policy of fear. As Díaz-Canel himself said: “collaboration and respect within our political system”. The institutional structure of the Cuban state is solid, and its design has allowed it to survive numerous crises. Blackouts and food shortages are becoming increasingly frequent, and repression has become a central element of its government. Recently, the Cuban government opted for an economic reform derived from the crisis the island is going through. The “internal Perestroika,” as the government calls it, allows Cuban exiles to invest in state-owned enterprises, open bank accounts in Cuban institutions, and form strategic alliances in the country's agricultural sector. The changes not only aim to reactivate the economy but also represent a shift in the official ideology. The state party is the one that maintains power, along with allied organizations of students, unions, farmers, journalists, and the Committees for the Defense of the Revolution, which are the first point of contact with the citizenry. Although the country approved a new Constitution in 2019, which established that the president can only serve two consecutive terms, it was a superficial change. For decades, the revolutionary government expropriated and collectivized enterprises; today, to save itself, it intends to introduce capitalist reforms. Despite the deep crisis the island is experiencing, this does not mean that the regime's fall is near. The daily Granma is the government's official communication outlet, the Communist Party of Cuba is the only body for advancement in the social pyramid, the intelligence body is a pillar for controlling dissent, and Marxism-Leninism is the ideology that dictates how citizens must behave. The state party is responsible for nominating candidates to the National Assembly of People's Power and is the backbone of authoritarianism. Fidel Castro copied the institutional design of the Soviet Union, that is, the foundations for the socialist elite to rule forever. The country has been left in the dark, which has unleashed protests not seen since 2021. However, beyond the pressures from Trump and the desperate condition in which Cubans find themselves, there is a fundamental element that could further hinder a possible Cuban transition, and that is the island has a state party. But this time, the Cuban elite has understood that it has no choice but to open up to not end up like Maduro. The author is a political scientist and journalist. The rotation of leaders and elites is essential, especially because generational change would bring fresh air to the revolutionary course. With Díaz-Canel's arrival to the presidency in 2021, Cuba began the process of “de-Castrization,” that is, the course of the revolution changed due to the exhaustion of the discourse and the lack of a strong leader. The elite, composed of military and bureaucrats, is essential for the functioning of the regime. While the Central Committee, the highest body, is in charge of proposing candidates to the Political Bureau and outlining the party's work at the national level. And the fact that Nicolás Maduro was captured on January 3, 2026, was a message for Havana: either you open channels for dialogue or you will end up like the Venezuelan leader. Trump has insisted on a takeover of Cuba since February 24, in the State of the Union address, when he pressured countries that supplied oil to the island, such as Mexico, to stop doing so. Amid citizen protests, mass blackouts across the island, economic crisis, food shortages, and U.S. pressure, President Miguel Díaz-Canel announced to the nation that he had begun talks with the United States. Socialism does not allow private ownership of the means of production; therefore, the association of the state with private capital represents a radical change. On the other hand, U.S. pressure is a decisive factor, but the elite negotiating with Washington will not hand over the power structures but will seek to negotiate. Political scientists such as Martin Lipset or Steven Rokkan define this system as an extension of the mass party that merges with the state structure, where militants occupy bureaucratic positions. The state party system has survived U.S. pressure in the 20th century, the fall of the Soviet Union, the so-called Special Period, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, at this moment the structure is being tested and tends to radicalize. The elite's argument was to promote the renewal of leadership to modernize the course of the revolution. The central objective is to attract investments that allow the government to modernize the electrical, hotel, banking, and mining infrastructure. Since then, and specifically since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Executive has faced large mobilizations. Maduro's capture was accompanied by a petroleum blockade of the island that has generated a deep energy crisis. The news generated speculation about a possible change of power.
